Politics is a game of possibilities. In 2019, Congress and Janata Dal (Secular), partners in a coalition government in the state, fought the Lok Sabha polls together. The alliance proved counterproductive and they did miserably. Many big leaders, including former PM HD Deve Gowda and veteran Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge, lost elections. They won just one seat each, while BJP looked unassailable after winning 26 seats, including an independent backed by the party, out of the 28 seats.
Now, in a complete change of events, the BJP and JD(S), which suffered a big jolt in the May 10 assembly polls, seem to be forging an alliance to take on Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The JD(S)’ compulsion to join hands with the BJP is understandable. It is fighting for its survival in the state and sees the Siddaramaiah-DK Shivakumar combo as a bigger threat to the party. The party failed to get the support of the minority Muslim community despite making an all-out effort. In the recent assembly polls, the community fully backed Congress, which had termed the regional party as “BJP’s B-team”.
On its part, the BJP seems to be working on a multi-pronged strategy. Getting the JD(S) onto the NDA bandwagon will help the party send a message to the regional parties in other states that it is willing to be more accommodative. That is important as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) bloc is broadening its base with the inclusion of more parties, taking the total number of parties in it to 28.
As BJP hopes to return to power for a third consecutive term under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, each seat matters, especially as many regional satraps join forces with Congress. In Karnataka, joining hands with the regional party could help the BJP to contain Congress, especially in Old Mysuru, though the party has to give up some seats it won in the last elections.
Unlike the 2019 JD(S)-Congress alliance that imploded due to internal contradictions, if things unfold as planned by the BJP, its partnership with the regional party could work as a force multiplier. In the May 10, 2023 assembly polls, the BJP had dented the JD(S)’ prospects in the region, splitting anti-Congress votes. This time around, the party seems to be trying to avoid that mistake by roping in JD(S) to fight Congress.
The JD(S) has considerable backing from the Vokkaliga community in the region. When combined with the BJP’s sway over the Lingayats, it could broaden the alliance partners’ support base, mostly in South Karnataka. The JD(S) can help the BJP in the three seats in Bengaluru and a few other constituencies including Mysuru, Mandya, Tumakuru, Chikkaballapur, and Chamarajanagar, while the BJP can help the regional party in Hassan and a few other seats that it may get as part of the deal.
However, a mere alliance of parties does not mean combining votes. It may not work as planned unless the grassroots-level party workers are taken into confidence. Distrust among the cadres can prove counterproductive for both parties as Congress will be looking to make the most of the faultlines and trying to further consolidate the minority support.
Although the Congress leaders seem unfazed by the BJP-JDS alliance talks, the Grand Old Party may have to rework its Lok Sabha poll strategy, if the two opposition parties seal the deal. With the shadow of drought and the Cauvery River water-sharing issue looming large, the government faces the charge of failing to protect the interests of farmers and also dilly-dallying in declaring drought. The crisis may further deteriorate in the next few months if the state fails to receive sufficient rain during the retreat monsoon. That can put Congress in a tight spot with Lok Sabha polls likely in summer of 2024.
The agrarian crisis could play a major role in the political narrative that will unfold over the next few months. Farmers have been protesting for two weeks over the release of Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu. The Congress government is accused of trying to protect the I.N.D.I.A alliance in which DMK — which is ruling in Tamil Nadu — is a partner. The BJP and the JD(S) are likely to make efforts to build
the narrative around the farmers’ issues to thwart Congress’ attempts to build momentum around the guarantee schemes.
