Hyderabad: Imagine having the ability to accurately forecast heavy rain in your neighborhood and lighter rain in your friend’s neighborhood, which is located a few kilometers away. Or, having the superpower to predict heavy downpour at a very particular area of a district, that too 10 days in advance.
This ability is now a reality, with Indian scientists developing a super-detailed computer model known as the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS). This system is much better at seeing small rain clouds and predicting heavy downpours, even 10 days ahead. In fact, the new forecasting system is being billed as even better than international weather modeling systems.
Developed by a group of scientists from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the BFS high-resolution modeling system can forecast and determine what’s happening every 6.5 kilometers. This means BFS can predict weather changes in much finer detail, almost down to small towns and villages. A 6.5 km resolution model can ‘see’ and predict weather patterns in much finer scale than the existing 12-km resolution models.
Why is it being billed as better than international models?
The BFS, which is technically known as the High-Resolution Global Forecasting Model (HGFM), was compared to existing high-end Global Forecasting System (GFS), which is a numerical weather prediction model utilized by multiple countries, including the United States.
According to IITM weather researchers, who published their work ‘High-Resolution Global Forecast Model’ in prestigious European Geosciences Union (EGU) in March, the BFS is actually better at predicting heavy rains accurately than the old standard, which is crucial for the public ahead of weather calamities.
Has it been tested?
As part of the research, the IITM weather scientists ran the model (HGFM) every day from June to September 2022 (monsoons). They used historical data to see how their new model would have predicted past events. Tests revealed that the model could predict upcoming monsoon rains events 10 days in advance, enough time to prepare for floods.
Why is BFS important for India?
Till now, the weather researchers have been able to accurately forecast/predict the movements of monsoon clouds and wind patterns over large areas. However, it is a struggle to exactly forecast the precise amount of rain that falls in specific areas or locations. They have not been able to forecast the day-to-day or week-to-week change of weather at small or specific locations.
However, now, with the BFS system, which was recently launched, researchers can now accurately forecast if a specific village or a small town will get a downpour or just a drizzle.
