The Israel-Hamas war deepens the struggle between US and Iran for influence in the Middle East

As Israel readies for a ground invasion of Gaza, and Palestinian and Israeli civilian deaths continue to mount, a broader struggle for influence continues in the Middle East between the United States and Iran.

The US has long played an important leadership role in the Middle East. American influence has hinged on maintaining close ties with diverse allies, including Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

And since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran’s leaders have sought to boost their regional influence and secure their domestic position in power by undermining America’s relationships in the Middle East.

Iran has built its own regional network, composed largely of Shia Muslim entities, including Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Iran also has long supported Hamas, a Sunni Islamist movement and US-designated terrorist group that controls Gaza. Like Iran, Hamas is committed to the destruction of Israel.

As a scholar of international politics, I am interested in how this rivalry between the US and Iran has evolved and how this war may affect it.

The long-standing Israel-Palestinian dispute is central to Iran’s regional strategy, which aims to drive a wedge between Israel and its neighbours and complicate US relations throughout the Arab world.

So far, the Israel-Hamas war appears to be having precisely those effects.

Iran’s role in the Gaza war

Iran has denied direct involvement in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, atrocities in Israel, in which Hamas fighters killed about 1,400 people and kidnapped more than 200.

US officials and others have said that it is too soon to determine Iran’s exact role in the violence.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has applauded the attacks.

He has called Israel’s ensuing assault on Gaza “a genocide,” as Palestinian casualties generate large protests against the Israeli offensive throughout the Middle East.

Israeli strikes on Gaza since Oct. 7 have killed more than 3,780 people, according to the United Nations.

Iran has also threatened “preemptive” action against Israel if it continues its offensive.

Israel and Hezbollah are now exchanging daily artillery and rocket fire. Israel has drawn a buffer zone near its border with Lebanon and has begun evacuating its citizens there.

Israel also has bombed key airports in Syria, its longtime adversary, which also has strong ties to Hezbollah.

These actions bring Israel, one of America’s closest allies, perilously closer to a wider war with a coalition backed by Iran.

Men stand on a city street with a police car nearby and burn a drawn Israeli flag. Behind them is a large billboard of a man with a white beard and black hat.Iranian demonstrators burn an Israeli flag in Tehran on Oct. 17, 2023. (Photo | AFP)
Iran’s push for regional clout

Over the past several decades, Iran has looked to grow its regional influence while exploiting the differences between the US and Israel.

In Lebanon, Iran helped build Hezbollah in the early 1980s, backing deadly 1983 attacks on the US Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut.

In Iraq, Tehran has built influence by affiliating itself with friendly Shiite groups following the 2003 overthrow of Saddam Hussein, who was one of Iran’s top rivals.

In Syria, Iran and Hezbollah have helped the Assad regime gain an upper hand in the country’s ongoing civil war by giving the government weapons, intelligence and troops.

And in Yemen, Iran has backed Shiite rebel groups that are fighting the government, which is in turn supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Iran’s support for Palestinian militants

In the Palestinian territories, meanwhile, Iran has supported militant groups since the 1980s. By the early 1990s, Iranian forces and Hezbollah were training Hamas fighters in Lebanon.

Iran boosted aid to Hamas during the Second Intifada, a violent Palestinian uprising from 2000 to 2005, and again after a 2006 election victory brought Hamas to power in Gaza. Iran also gave weapons and money to Hamas during its 2008-09 and 2014 armed conflicts with Israel.

Recurrent fighting in Gaza has helped keep the Israeli-Palestinian conflict salient in Middle Eastern politics. This fighting and tension has advanced Iran’s aims of undermining US and Israeli ties with Iran’s Arab rivals, such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

The United States therefore scored a major diplomatic victory by brokering the 2020 Abraham Accords, in which Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates agreed to have diplomatic relations with Israel.

Not to be outdone, Iran announced it made a deal to restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in March 2023, seven years after they broke ties.

After this announcement, US officials tried to make a deal to formalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia – an agreement that the Gaza war has put on ice. Some analysts have speculated that Iran may have encouraged Hamas to attack Israel precisely fo