Singles contest: What will happen to Semen’s votes?
Tamil Nadu : Naam Tamil Party chief convenor Seeman has announced that he will contest the assembly elections alone again. What will happen to the vote bank of Naam Tamil Party with the arrival of Vijay’s party has become a topic of discussion in the political arena, Seeman’s announcement of contesting separately has raised many eyebrows.
In the Tamil National Revolt Day public meeting held recently at Codissia Ground in Coimbatore, Seeman announced that the Naam Tamil Party will contest the 2026 assembly elections alone. The results of the elections can be fully gauged by looking at the votes received by the Naam Tamil Party so far.
In the 2016 assembly elections, which were held under the leadership of two popular figures Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi, Seeman could only secure 1.13 percent of the vote bank. The DMK failed to come to power by a margin of one percent.
The disappearance of the two great personalities, the emergence of two prime ministerial candidates in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Modi and Rahul Gandhi, the alliance of central and state parties with money, caste and power, the alliance of opposition parties not compromising with the ruling party alliance, the political entry of the biggest film star Kamal Haasan and the independent entry of TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK, who had learnt politics with Jayalalithaa and Sasikala, all raised concerns that Seeman’s party, which lacks money and power, would surely disappear.
The NDA, which emerged as a separate party to sideline him, surprised everyone by increasing its vote bank threefold by winning 3.87 per cent of the votes.
Unbroken strategy: TTV Dhinakaran got 5.5 per cent more votes than Seeman, and Kamal Haasan got 3.78 per cent less votes. But Seeman’s vote bank remained the same across Tamil Nadu. Dhinakaran’s vote bank was higher only in the delta and south districts, where the majority of the population is Muslim, i.e. third among 21 constituencies, and lower in other constituencies.
Even Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam party came third in only 11 constituencies, including constituencies with high populations of Brahmins, Naidu, Chetia and Saurashtra communities who speak other languages, and urban constituencies such as South Chennai, Central Chennai, North Chennai, Sriperumbudur, Tiruvallur, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Salem and Madurai.
While Dhinakaran and Kamal Haasan’s party got more votes in some areas and less in others, the NDA came third in only 6 seats. However, Seeman secured reasonable votes in 39 constituencies and also in Puducherry. Seeman’s Naam Tamil Party, which got 3.87 per cent of the votes, contested the subsequent by-elections. Dhinakaran and Kamal Haasan withdrew.
When the party contested the 2021 assembly elections for the third time, questions were again raised whether Seeman would be able to get additional votes. However, Seeman strengthened his presence by increasing his vote bank to 6.58 percent, which is six times more than the 2016 assembly elections and almost double the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
