India’s exports surge amid Middle East ceasefire
Business: The truce in the Middle East has not only brought relief to Indian markets and fuel consumers, but also cheered exporters of solar cells, meat, bananas and cardamom. Of the $434 billion worth of goods that India exports globally in 2024, Middle Eastern countries account for $15 billion, or nearly 3 per cent of total exports, according to a Moneycontrol analysis. The biggest beneficiaries of this ceasefire include exporters of sheep and bovine meat, with the entire $176 million worth of exports by India in 2024 going to the region. Middle Eastern countries were the biggest buyers of Indian writing ink, accounting for 99 per cent of total exports in the category. The region, along with North Africa, also absorbed 91 per cent of India’s $530.5 million copper wire exports. Photovoltaic (solar) cells were another major export item, with more than 80 per cent of exports going to the Middle East. Dairy products and iron and steel also relied heavily on the Middle Eastern region, with trade worth $676 million.
India’s top fruit export, bananas – which overtook grapes as the most exported fruit in FY25 – was also largely destined for the Middle East. Countries in the region were eight of the top 10 destinations, accounting for 83 per cent of exports, with Iraq alone absorbing 60 per cent.
In other categories such as cardamom, 70 per cent of India’s exports were directed to the MENA region, while for silk the figure was slightly lower at 65 per cent.
Cosmetics also saw heavy dependence on the region, with 58.5 per cent of exports going there in 2024.
About 20 per cent of the $74 billion worth of goods exported by India to the region fell into such categories, where more than half of the total exports depended on Middle Eastern buyers.
If conflict flares
However, the industries are still not out of the woods. Despite a ceasefire declared by US President Donald Trump on June 24, Iran fired missiles at Israel, drawing threats of retaliation.
Israel Defence Forces Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir said, “In view of the serious violations of the ceasefire committed by the Iranian regime, we will respond with force.”
Any escalation could impact nearly 20 per cent of India’s total trade, as per a previous analysis by Moneycontrol. India’s transport, fuel and minerals sectors are particularly vulnerable, with the sector accounting for 48 per cent of fuel imports and a quarter of mineral imports in 2024.
If the Red Sea trade route is affected – especially after Yemen’s announcement of entering the conflict – it could put nearly 40 per cent of India’s total trade at risk.
