India may miss its $1 trillion export target for FY26: GTRI
New Delhi [India], December 25 (ANI): Ajay Srivastava, founder of the economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), told ANI on Wednesday that India will not be able to achieve its ambitious target of $1 trillion in goods and services exports by FY26, as the global slowdown and protectionism are impacting merchandise shipments.
“We are almost there. Last year, our exports of goods and services were approximately $825 billion,” Srivastava said in an exclusive interview with ANI. “This year, because growth will be flat, there will be almost no growth in merchandise exports, while services exports will grow, our total exports in FY26 will be approximately $850 billion. We will fall short of the $1 trillion target by $150 billion.”
He said this target can only be achieved if India enters into major trade agreements. He further added, “I think we will be able to achieve it when we have a trade deal with the US and the EU. That will probably happen next year, not this year.”
The GTRI founder said that recent trade data shows early signs of diversification in India’s export markets. “We have seen that between May and November, our exports to the US have declined by 20.7 percent,” he said. “But during this period, our exports to the rest of the world have increased by 5.5 percent. This means that diversification has started on a small scale.”
However, he cautioned that market diversification alone will not be sufficient without a change in what India exports. “For more diversification, for more exports to these countries, we also need to focus on diversifying our export basket,” Srivastava said. “Right now, our export basket needs to include more medium to high-tech products.” Srivastava also offered a cautious assessment of multilateral groupings and global financial shifts. On BRICS, he said, “BRICS is not an institution like Europe or ASEAN. It’s a loose grouping of countries, and its agenda is largely driven by China.” He added that India “subscribes to a limited agenda of BRICS, not the entire agenda.”
On currency fluctuations, Srivastava said that the pressure on the rupee is largely driven by global factors. “A large part of the depreciation, the ownership of it, depends on how the US changes its interest rates,” he said, adding that strong exports would help alleviate the pressure on the currency. He also called for a more assertive stance from India at the World Trade Organization (WTO).
“Almost nothing has happened in the WTO in the last 25 years, except for the Trade Facilitation Agreement,” Srivastava said, arguing that the institution has strayed from its core purpose. “India should tell WTO members to focus more on the trade agenda, which is the core of the WTO.”
He added that India should also protect its agricultural interests and forge alliances with like-minded countries. “India should start trying to build alliances with like-minded countries like South Africa or Brazil to push the core trade agenda,” he said.
Despite the challenges on the export front, Srivastava said that domestic fundamentals remain supportive of growth. “The domestic economy is doing well. The GDP figures are showing that; the low inflation figures are showing that. The only pressure on GDP will be from the export side.”
