Ludhiana: Triangular contest begins with BJP’s lead

Punjab: The Ludhiana (West) bypoll, scheduled for June 19, has turned into a triangular contest, where the growing influence of the BJP could upset the fortunes of either the Congress or the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). During the 2024 general election, the BJP secured 45,000 votes in the Ludhiana (West) constituency – around 14,000 and 22,000 more votes than the Congress and AAP, respectively. This bypoll is crucial for the AAP, as it is being speculated that Sanjeev Arora’s Rajya Sabha seat may fall vacant for the party’s national convenor Arvind Kejriwal, who lost the Delhi assembly elections. Thus, Kejriwal has campaigned vigorously, making Ludhiana (West) a crucial test for the AAP’s urban appeal. A defeat here could further weaken the party’s position in Punjab. Former Congress minister Bharat Bhushan Ashu is banking on his past governance record to regain the seat, which he lost to AAP’s Gurpreet Gogi by 7,512 votes in 2022, with 64.4 per cent polling. BJP leader Ravneet Bittu’s popularity will also be tested. Despite losing the Ludhiana Lok Sabha seat to Congress’ Amarinder Singh Raja Waring, Bittu managed to edge ahead from this assembly constituency.

After becoming Union Minister of State for Railways, his performance will indicate whether his ministerial role has strengthened his influence. BJP’s Jeevan Gupta, who is campaigning aggressively, is expected to carry forward his ground work done over the years in the region. Besides, AAP’s loss in the 2024 Barnala bypoll has raised uncertainty over its prospects in Ludhiana (West). AAP candidate Harinder Singh Dhaliwal was defeated by Congress’ Kuldeep Singh Dhillon by a margin of 2,157 votes. Barnala – an AAP stronghold since 2014 – lost due to internal squabbles in the party. The denial of ticket to local leader Gurdeep Singh Baath and the re-emergence of the Congress contributed to AAP’s defeat. Baath contested as an independent and secured around 17,000 votes. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has entered this election after facing several controversies, including internal party feuds and opposition to the Punjab government’s land pooling policy. The party has also launched a new membership drive, which it hopes will help it assess its political position in Punjab.
The SAD has been struggling to regain lost ground, so any votes it gets in this by-election will reflect its core support base rather than any outside influence. The result will be crucial in determining whether the Akali Dal can re-establish its presence in Punjab politics. The BJP will also rely on the success of Operation Sindoor and leverage the national security narrative to mobilise urban voters. There is also discussion about how much the power of money can hold sway in this by-election. Allegations have surfaced that gifts, including electronic goods, were distributed to influence voters. While there has been no official confirmation, the presence of financial incentives is being widely discussed in political circles. In addition, there is speculation that supporters of some parties may strategically cross-vote to keep the Congress or the AAP out of power. With just a year and a half left before the 2027 assembly elections, the Ludhiana (West) by-election is being seen as a political barometer that could shape future strategies and alliances.